London Property - Home of Super Prime

London Property Market Update 2023: Top Agents Share Year-End Predictions - Tom Tangney

December 27, 2023 London Property - Home of Super Prime Season 10 Episode 3
London Property Market Update 2023: Top Agents Share Year-End Predictions - Tom Tangney
London Property - Home of Super Prime
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London Property - Home of Super Prime
London Property Market Update 2023: Top Agents Share Year-End Predictions - Tom Tangney
Dec 27, 2023 Season 10 Episode 3
London Property - Home of Super Prime

Welcome back to the London Property Podcast, your go-to source for navigating the dynamic world of London real estate. 🏡 In this third episode of our latest Market Update series, our host Farnaz Fazaipour engages in a riveting conversation with the seasoned expert, Tom Tangney, delving into the latest trends and developments in the London property market.

If you have a property question, we would love to hear from you email us at ask@londonproperty.co.uk or book a free 15 minute call by texting 07860 343434.

Join us as Tom shares his extensive experience, from his early days in Bayswater to his current focus in Kensington and Chelsea. Gain valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities presented by the 2023 market, and hear Tom's take on what might unfold in 2024.

From the impact of leasehold changes to the importance of realistic pricing advice for sellers, Tom covers a spectrum of crucial topics. Explore the nuances of the current market conditions, including the buyer and seller mentalities, trends in buy-to-let investing, and the potential effects of global events on London's real estate landscape.

Stay tuned for our engaging conversations with the next and last agent, as they share their perspectives, expertise, and predictions for the future of London's real estate.

Our Market Update series is designed to provide you with a comprehensive understanding of how different prime areas within London are navigating the ever-changing real estate landscape. Whether you're a buyer, seller, or investor, these episodes offer invaluable insights that can guide your decisions in the London property market.

Maximize your property wealth with London Property. Turn challenges into opportunities. With expert knowledge and reach, we tackle the complexities and inefficiencies of the property market with you.

Show Notes Transcript

Welcome back to the London Property Podcast, your go-to source for navigating the dynamic world of London real estate. 🏡 In this third episode of our latest Market Update series, our host Farnaz Fazaipour engages in a riveting conversation with the seasoned expert, Tom Tangney, delving into the latest trends and developments in the London property market.

If you have a property question, we would love to hear from you email us at ask@londonproperty.co.uk or book a free 15 minute call by texting 07860 343434.

Join us as Tom shares his extensive experience, from his early days in Bayswater to his current focus in Kensington and Chelsea. Gain valuable insights into the challenges and opportunities presented by the 2023 market, and hear Tom's take on what might unfold in 2024.

From the impact of leasehold changes to the importance of realistic pricing advice for sellers, Tom covers a spectrum of crucial topics. Explore the nuances of the current market conditions, including the buyer and seller mentalities, trends in buy-to-let investing, and the potential effects of global events on London's real estate landscape.

Stay tuned for our engaging conversations with the next and last agent, as they share their perspectives, expertise, and predictions for the future of London's real estate.

Our Market Update series is designed to provide you with a comprehensive understanding of how different prime areas within London are navigating the ever-changing real estate landscape. Whether you're a buyer, seller, or investor, these episodes offer invaluable insights that can guide your decisions in the London property market.

Maximize your property wealth with London Property. Turn challenges into opportunities. With expert knowledge and reach, we tackle the complexities and inefficiencies of the property market with you.

Welcome to the London property podcast, your go to source for navigating the complex and ever changing London real estate market. Our digital marketplace provides informative and educational content from industry leaders. Through podcasts and videos. We cover various aspects of the real estate experience, including buying and selling finance, law, tax construction, design, and more. Join us as we delve into the latest trends and developments in the market and gain valuable insights from our panel of experts.

Hello, and welcome to London property the home of super prime. I'm your host Farnaz Fazaipour. And we're welcoming Tom Tangney back to the show. Always have wise words to say welcome back to the show. Thank you for having me. So let's just dive straight into it. Well, actually, let's not dive straight into it, can you just tell our listeners who don't know you as well as we do, and then a bit about your history in the market. Okay,

I got into the world of property in the mid 80s 1985. Firstly, working in agency up on the Bayswater area north of Hyde Park, then left that firm to go and join a property development company a lot of fun, we do a lot of work down in the Borough Market area of London and South East one and the London Bridge. Then Nigeria seven came big problems the market imploded, got back into agency and then was with John D word for many, many years. Both sides of the river, Betsy and Chelsea, then join Knight Frank in 2000. And I was with him for best part of 20 years. And then in in lockdown, one. That's when I decided to break out. And I hooked up with Simon Rosen Rosen partners, and there I am today. So dealing predominantly in the Kensington and Chelsea area. And it's not price specific. It's its target driven by the properties that we get to see and the people that we get to work with. I'm at the moment I'm working with someone who I sold a house to some years ago, 20 years ago, and we're now looking for a flat for their children. So almost doing full circle, suddenly big house now looking for a one bedroom flat for their son. So and that's rather the joy of working in Independence. You can do whatever you want, wherever you want. And it's fun. Again, in the corporate worlds, not so much fun. And

you're a trendsetter having been in Borough Market back in the 80s. The game that must have been really interesting times,

actually, we were looking at mostly commercial stuff in those days offices and converting warehouses and whatever, we did a big new build development. But as I say, 1987 the crash came. And so we had a lot of fun. No one got hurt. We made money, lost money. And once we lost money, we had to go back and get a real job again. It was fun. It was fun. That's what it's all about.

It certainly is. And let's let's let's talk about the fun. We're not really having in 2023. So how are you finding the market at the moment,

at the moment the market is is tough, you know, there's no denying it. And there are some people who say they're incredibly busy, but they may be running around showing a lot of property, I don't think there are as many deals being agreed, as there were this time last year. Certainly the numbers that we see on the available portals do make it make sorry, reading in some cases. But clients at the moment are just looking for sound advice. As vendors and buyers alike. They just want to know, where's the market, they don't want to be told lots of fluff, oh, it's great. It's wonderful. They really want to hear it for what it is and how it is. And I think if you're having a tough time selling a property, you've got to keep in contact with your client all the time saying yep, I know perhaps has been another bad week, we haven't had anybody through the door or people have counselled us to the last minute or whatever. It's just being communicative all the time with your clients. That is that is the golden rule of agency. You just keep your clients happy by talking to them. You know, the, the crime is not talking to them. And most of them are understanding they're intelligent people. They read the newspapers, they know what the world is like at the moment, and there's too many outside distractions. We're coming up to the festive season. You know, that's always a distraction. And then next year, be an interesting year. We have an election year next year, whether or not he goes early or late. I have my own views on that. But that's always a distraction. And whenever we have an election coming up, people just sit on their hands and do nothing because it's the easy option to do. Once the election is over, no matter who's in power people just carry on again. But with interest rates as they are a big Pete have they frozen? Who knows? Inflation. The two are linked And then we'll be some people coming in to 2024 with worries and concerns if if they're on mortgage rates that are going to go up, you know, so there's gonna be maybe a little pain next year. But when the Prime central London market it is still very much envied by others around the world as a place that people like to come and live here because of the way we own property here is very straightforward. Like Vancouver freehold properties, the education system is still very, very attractive here. And you can live in London in an unlimited if you so wish, you know, so it's still being regarded as a city that people want to come to.

You just said that the way we hold property is really straightforward freehold, but we are having a lot of changes in legislation when it comes to leasehold. So it is actually going to be another selling point, isn't it for people with leasehold properties? To say, look, it's not going to be as complicated as it was, it's not gonna be as expensive as it was. And it's not going to cost as much to actually go through the administrative process. Yeah, so that's

a good thing. Yeah, that's gonna help. Certainly flat owners if they are in a building where they don't necessarily own or already own the share on the freehold, or the War of the building. So yes, it will make it easier, less complicated. Again, another attraction costs will go down for lease extensions. So there's, there are some good things coming our way with leasehold properties. And but I wouldn't let that holds people back from buying a property now.

And what are you advising sellers at the moment?

Just listen to the advice that we're giving you look at the comparable evidence that we're giving you, if a property is worth X, there's no point in saying Well, look, I want x plus 10%. Buyers will get this information. It's all open source information. So if you are a seller, just keep your feet on the ground. Just be sensible on price. Listen to what we're telling you or what other agents are telling you get a consensus of opinion. And any agent who knows their salt in this business will know that the evidence is all there for everybody. So don't be swayed by people or agents who will give you big inflated prices because they will buy your business. And by that I mean that they will sign you up. And then over time, gently bring your price down. And that's I don't think that's right. I think there's something there's a moral argument in my head about that, which says it isn't right. Because you you build up their expectations too high and need to chip away at it later. So I think it's important. Really, if your agenda is yes, I'm selling, then just be sensible about it. You may be lucky, you might get a bit of competitive interest. If you've got the right property and everything's all those stars are aligned, then happy days, but just be sensible on price, and also be prepared that it might take a bit longer.

And are you seeing any trends at all in this kind of weird non market that we're having at the moment?

already? I think, no, no trends, really. And there is still well, then perhaps one and that is vendors are becoming a little bit more realistic about price. Now it is in the press, they are just being a bit more sensible about it, especially if they have a real agenda that is saying, Yeah, we're upsizing or downsizing. We relocating, married divorce. And it's all the old reasons why people are buying and selling properties now. So it's just a question of if there is one trend, really it is. Let's just get real about it. Let's just do it if it's the right time for us.

And I mean, as always cash is king. But are you finding any signs of people actually sort of? Personally, I've come across people who are coming from abroad with cash just waiting for the right opportunity. I think that opportunities now I don't think we're going any lower? I

don't think so. I mean, they'll always be an exception to the story anyway, there'll always be someone who has to sell tomorrow for whatever reason, and there'll be someone else who does incredibly well because they've got the right property. So it's it has to be case specific about why a property will achieve a certain price. Cash is king. Yes, buyers sorry vendors like dealing with people who are cash rich, but equally cash rich people will take loans out because it can be certain tax advantages for them to do that, especially with inheritance tax and estate planning, if you like. And for a lot of cash rich people, they can still get quite good deals on their cash because they're earning good interest elsewhere. There may be reasons why they'd want to bring money into the UK because of exchange rates or whatever. So you will find that there'll be some people who are technically cash rich, but will borrow money for specific reasons. And

are you seeing an exodus of of buy to let investors getting out of Marquette?

No, no, I think they've weathered the storm. They've gotten used to the new tax regimes which aren't particularly friendly. They may have to make some changes. But well, the government may have to make some changes, but don't hold your breath for that one. I think most of them have just gotten used to the fact that taxing taxation has gone up. If the property is washing its face, then just leave it alone, let it go, because it will ride out in time and in for a 10 year programme on bite of that, it'll come out eventually, just not immediately just take a bit longer.

It is sort of lazy investing, isn't it? You don't have to think about Oh, my God, all my stocks up or down? Just by proxy, leave it forget about it. Yes. tighten your belt when things get tough. Well, exactly come out the other side?

Well, exactly. And the difference, I think, between property and stocks and shares is that if your portfolio and stocks and shares drops by 20%, you've lost 20%. You, you can't lose a bedroom. If the value of the property goes down, and it's just you still got the same amount of bricks, it's still got the same amount of accommodation. So actually, it's just a it's a different type of loss, but you still got something to live in it. And it's a matter of accommodation. So technically, it's not a loss.

And everybody will always need there isn't any kind of technological advancement I can think of where people end up not needing a home. Exactly. I think we're,

I think we need to we need to have a roof over our heads. Exactly. Yeah.

So if you did have a crystal ball, what would you say for 2024?

Bit like 2023, the year that's just past, there will be the distraction of a general election at some point.

I'm gonna stick my neck out. And I wouldn't be surprised if he does go early for a spring election, you know, he might just get a bounce on one or two things. Labour Party might find they have difficulties going on with certain things going forward. So I wouldn't be entirely surprised if he goes early. And if he does, and that would be good for the economy as a whole. But equally, he could just pay the full term. Like turkeys voting for Christmas and away but so I think it'll be it's gonna be quite Yeah, I don't think values are going to do anything significant. I don't see any world events, changing our lives, usually. Other world events that have happened in the past haven't changed our lives in London. So if there is a blow up of events somewhere, could be good news for us. So more of the same ready for 2023 F 24, as we've had in 23.

Well, maybe a few more nervous people in the Middle East, I would say that

might bring some more overseas interest into London. They want to have a safe haven here. Yeah, possibly. But there are other cities in the world that they like going to as well. So we have to be aware that there could be competition within the likes of Paris or Madrid, New York, Los Angeles new so we have to be mindful of that. But London still holds a special place for most people's heart.

Well, I think that a lot of the European countries are looking at how successful the non DOM status was here. Yes, and coming up with their own versions. So you've got the Freedom Tax in Italy, you've got the golden visa in Spain now. Yes. And you've had the golden visa and Greece and so on. So you know, it is a bit of competition. There is a bit of competition out there, but they don't speak English. as well. Not as well, though. Thank you, as always for joining us and we look forward to speaking to you again. Thank you very much.

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